IRAN'S NUKES

Iran has recently been announcing that it will show the world something incredible. So far we have seen some missiles, miniature flying boats and missile torpedoes.

It is more than possible and more likely the subject of their "incredible surprise" that Iran could reach proof of concept test stage for its military nuclear program within the time frame forecast; ie: by March or April, 2006.

However, how such a test is undertaken will tell, in reality, the level of credibility of the clerics’ nuclear threat.

If the test were an actual underground explosion, for example, it would highlight the reality that the clerics are attempting to make a statement to domestic and general audiences around the world, not to prove, scientifically, the capability.

Such proof can also be achieved without detonation, by demonstrating the viability of the triggers, and using computer simulation from that point onwards. However, this avenue lacks psychological impact at a political level.

It is possible, if a live weapon were used, that this could be one of the eight or more warheads now in the hands of the Pasdaran Air Force. At least three were acquired from Kazakhstan in December 1991.

By the end of 1991, Iran had all (or virtually all) the components needed to make three operational nuclear weapons: aerial bombs and/or surface-to-surface missile (SSM) warheads. Highly-reliable sources had long ago stated that the weapons were assembled from parts bought in the ex-Soviet Muslim republics.

These weapons became operational as early as February to April 1992. Tehran said it is committed to "providing Syria with a nuclear umbrella before June 1992".

The weapons obtained from Kazakhstan were two nuclear warheads and one aerial nuclear bomb. As well, in April 1992-1993, Iran purchased FOUR more warheads for SCUD-type SSMs which were upgraded in the DPRK.

Since that time, Iran acquired a reported four nuclear weapons from Ukraine, and additional warheads from the DPRK (North Korea). There is also evidence that Iran may have acquired up to six warheads from Ukraine, delivered via Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It is understood that the indigenous production focuses around designs which are essentially the same, or similar to, those of Pakistan. An actual detonation of an Iranian weapon would disclose to sensors much about the type of weapon and the origins of the fissionable materials used in its construction.

Having said that, there are very real questions as to the numbers of nuclear weapons which Iran could build domestically in the near-term. To overcome this, Iran has already embarked on a strategy of saturation of Israeli (and other) regional defenses. Including by using Hamas and Hezbollah capability in the region to divert Israel on the ground with local attacks.

It is clear that the major build-up of tactical and theater-strategic ballistic missiles in Hezbollah and Syrian positions is designed to cause Israel to expend its three batteries of Arrow 2 ABM and Patriot PAC-III missiles against an overwhelming array of targets, most of which would be non-nuclear and non-strategic, thus enabling Iran to undertake a second-strike, or follow-on launch, of Shahab-3s with nuclear weapons against a "theoretically" then-defenseless Israel.

Equally, Israel is aware of this and has undertaken steps to determine target priorities and to adopt a launch-through-confirmed-warning counter-attack.

Assuming that an April 2006 date, (apparently moved to May or June) for a supposed surgical US strike against Iranian facilities is believed in Tehran, then clearly the clerics would consider making a move just before that date line. But all of the time frames are extremely speculative.

It also cannot be assumed that all the Iranian deliveries of nuclear weapons would be via ballistic missiles, such as the Shahab-3. One special danger would be an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) fired by Iran over the USA from a retrofited cargo ship, chartered or leased under false identity and hard to find and to counteract. Even an old rust bucket would do the job. In fact this kind of disguise would serve well.

Ukraine already admitted that it had “lost” 18 supersonic, long-range (3,000km) nuclear-capable X-55/KH-55 Granat [NATO codename AS-15 Kent cruise missiles, without their warheads and that 12 had gone to Iran and six to the PRC.

On January 28, 2005, Ukranian parliamentarian Hryhoriy Omelchenko on January 28, 2005, released an open letter to Pres. Viktor Yushchenko stating that Ukraine had illegally sold the cruise missiles to Iran in 2001. The Iranian Government later said that it had “no documentation” on the deal.

The four to six warheads purchased by Iran in 2001 were for the Kh-55, a missiles which was optimized for attacks on US Navy carriers. Meanwhile, as well, the PRC has already transferred to Iran Russian-origin nuclear and strategic technologies without Moscow's permission.

Significantly, the threat is not just from the Shahab SSMs and X-55s, but also from the myriad shorter-range SCUD-type SSMs and anti-ship cruise missiles. Cruise missiles in fixed batteries (mainly near the Straits of Hormuz) are concealed underground.

The next key date in the Iran saga will possibly be the meeting of the Council of Guardians to review the status of Supreme Ruler Ali Khamenei, set for late April and organize a new election for the position - also reportedly postponed to May or June.

Ailing from terminal cancer with perhaps as little as six months to live, the Supreme Ruler faces a challenge from his former supporter and now declared antagonist, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, whose 12th Imam apocalypse and Armageddon mind sets were too weird even for Khomeini, who forced the cleric and his Hojatieh movement into a clandestine, underground profile.

As the spiritual mentor for President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Mesbah Yazdi has emerged as the power behind the throne and counts on the support of the Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran) commanders Ahmadi-Nejad has placed in virtually every executive position of power in his administration. And into the administration of universities and into key positions inside Iranian banks.

Reports indicate that Iran has already successfully modified at least one nose cone, perhaps three, as mentioned above, to deliver a nuclear weapon but appears more likely to set off an underground nuclear test to "impress" the world even more than the regular recent display of weapons so far.

However, with Ahmadi-Nejad and his spiritual advisor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi at the helm, the Iranian demonstration could speculatively be dropping a nuclear bomb on Israel and then basking in the Islamic fervor and congratulations this would bring them.

They are of the Pol Pot type mentality, not the "saner" old-guard Ayatollahs with whom the world has been dealing - however badly and weakly - which now leads to the "flesh eating bacteria" challenge presented by the neo-Iran administration of Ahmadi-Nejad.