TEHRAN BEHIND US ATTACHE DISAPPEARANCE?

Tehran behind US attache disappearance?

James LewisThe US Military Attache to Cyprus has disappeared, according to the Nicosia US Embassy website.

"One of our Embassy employees, Thomas Mooney, has not been in touch with the Embassy for more than 48 hours. Anyone with information which might be helpful in locating him should contact the local police station.

"Mr. Mooney has a large black American car with tinted windows (1996 Chevrolet Impala SS, license 48CD47)."

While the website does not identify who Mr. Mooney is, the AP points out that a Lieutenant Col. Mooney is the Military Attache in Cyprus, which is a traditional site of both visible and covert espionage activity in the Levant.

It is impossible to say what happened to Col. Mooney, and whether he will turn up soon, alive and well. However, the Iranians have accused the United States of kidnapping five Iranian diplomats in Iraq several months ago.

The US has refused to return them, saying they were enabling and directing sophisticated IED attacks that were killing US Soldiers and Marines. In addition, the fanatical Islamic Revolutionary Guard has seen several high-level defections recently, which must have had major behind-the-scenes repercussions in the mullahcracy.

Kidnapping Col. Mooney might be a tit-for-tat move by Tehran against the United States. President Ahmadi-Nejad has long been deeply involved with the El Qods Brigade of the IRGC, which has carried out assassinations and bomb attacks abroad ever since the Khomeinist regime came to power. It is entirely possible that the fanatical regime in Tehran would interrogate and perhaps torture Col. Mooney to gain information about US covert activities against the regime. Or he may be kept to trade for IRGC members arrested in Iraq.

Ahmadi-Nejad is also turning the screws at home, by arresting and warning tens of thousands of civilians wearing Western clothing, imprisoning students involved in anti-regime protests, and raising the price of gasoline -- a move that has caused a public uproar and some rioting.

Anti-Mullah just published a thoughtful report arguing that the regime is preparing for war by diverting gasoline supplies to the military. Both Iran and Syria have also made huge investments in advanced warplanes and air defense systems from Russia, essentially equipping themselves with entire new air force fleets.

However, such new weaponry presumably requires a learning curve before it can become maximally effective.

Both the US and Israel have made clear that they will not tolerate this regime's production of nuclear weapons. Exactly at what point a red line would be crossed has been left deliberately vague, but Israeli sources mention the year 2008 quite often. More effective sanctions may be on the way as well.

It is in the interest of the West to keep the regime worried to the point of panic over a long period of time, degrading its domestic support base without paying the cost of war. Covert actions against the regime are also much cheaper for the Bush administration to carry out in terms of domestic political costs. However, the Iran crisis is driven by the unavoidable advances in its nuclear program. At some point the shadow war may therefore burst out into the light of day.

That is apparently what Tehran expects, and may be what it wants. When Supreme Guide Khamenei allowed Ahmadi-Nejad to become President, he deliberately chose to favor the war faction over the pragmatists led by Rafsanjani. Ahmadi-Nejad has been constantly boastful and confrontational, following a foolish and self-destructive course by Western political standards.

He has created many enemies who used to be on the fence, but who are now preparing to turn against the regime, including European and Sunni Arab countries. Only recently Ahmadi-Nejad openly threatened Egypt and Jordan, calling them "traitors" to Islam.

Those are fighting words in the Middle East. With Egypt fighting
the Muslim Brotherhood domestically, it must show strength against Islamist radicals of any stripe.

Ultimately, Iran's strategy of public insult, intimidation and confrontation only works if it is backed up by a willingness to escalate to large-scale force. So far, nothing has worked to dissuade the regime from its dangerous course, although the pragmatists are presumably very worried and unwilling to be dragged into a suicidal gambles. Ahmadi-Nejad may personally thrive on the prospect of a martyrdom war, but billionaire Rafsanjani does not look like a martyrdom fan.

The Supreme Guide Ayatollah Khamenei could rein in Ahmadi-Nejad, but has shown no willingness to do so thus far. The mullahcracy may therefore be gambling that it can provoke a war with Israel and the West and survive. That makes no sense on the evidence as we understand it in the West. It is still possible that the regime will back away from the abyss, but today it seems less and less likely.

If Col. Mooney was indeed kidnapped by IRGC agents on Cyprus, it would be yet another signal of Tehran's reckless rush toward confrontation.