TEXAS VISITOR COMMENT & QUESTIONS

FIRST EMAIL RECEIVED:


Mr. Peters:

I have followed your site for years admiring your presence of mind and honesty.

I think you call the shots as they are.

I note you have have lain off the US vs. Iran theme in terms of an attack for some time now. Like many of us, perhaps you are tired of waiting for something to happen.

My popcorn has gotten soggy and my soda warm for all the times I thought it would happen.

Since the Bush administration has embraced the NIE whose study says that Iran has stopped Nuclear weapon development, I am curious if you care to make a prediction of events.

For the next 12 months. I think nothing will happen for the following reasons.

I think the matter of hiding behind the NIE report is politically motivated.

No one believes the report, least of all the Bush administration. I think Bush is just getting out of attacking Iran.

I think Bush is under enormous pressure from the Pro Israeli factions in the US Government to attack Iran. This is his way out.

I think he has chosen this decision at this time for a number of reasons:

Annapolis showed the Bush people that there would be no united Arab front against Iran. Everyone would go where the wind blew.

Israel has not been given enough time until the next administraiton to cross the line and attack. This is so because as a new administration takes office in One year the Pro Israeli lobby can get to work on the next administration to get them to do their work for them.

If Israel attacks in the interval, they must go it alone. At leasy initially. Who would give up the chance to have someone else do the job by the mere passage of time? Especially if one must wait only a year?

If Israel attacks now, the opportunity is lost, so they must sit and wait as they know it matters not who is in power, they can pressure either party equally well.

So the Bush people have put Israel in a Box by giving them this decision at this time, with so little time until someone else makes decisions.

I think you see the Israeli reaction in recent public discussion of an Israeli attack in the absence of a US deterrent and the other information that has made public indicating the obvious, that Iran continues to pursue a fission weapons system; all to stir the great American fear.

Which is: What if Israel acts alone? How do we control or influence the unintended consequences of a middle east regional conflict if we are not the initiators? The Israelis know this will fail to interest the Americans in putting the Military option back on the table for 2008.

So I think the odds of a US/Israeli attack in 2008 is low.

However, this does not rule out another9/11 type provocation by those interested in causing the US/Israel and Iran clash to move into prominence now. There are many parties with such an interest.

These include domestic US/Israeli/Iranian interests and others external to these countries who simply want to see all these entities engaged in a dispute that crosses the threshold of force because it benefits them.

Then again, external interests have much less ability to falsify a direct attack on the US/Israel, or Iran that is attributable to any of these three powers. Hence, I rate this possibility relatively low.

What is your view and prognosis for the next 12 Months?

If you like you can post my email and your response on your site.

Thanx,

Robert A. Montserrat



REPLY - ANTIMULLAH OPINION:

Your writing format for your "question" is a very professional and recognizable one :-)) Takes practice.

Here is an oblique non-answer since I can only speculate and it's a coin toss. And my formatting is not a formal one. Even journalistic, perhaps.

Bush went from a very preoccupied, concerned man with the weight of the world on his shoulders, bumping into walls when going through doors to someone in peace and one who had made a difficult decision some two or so months ago.

I first thought he had internally justified killing half a million paramilitary IRGC and Basiji to save the world as we know it in his mind and soul.

He might have known about the NIE report as far back as then but I believe it caught him by surprise - specially the disloyalty to him and to the USA.

Having floated around at those levels I know how knowledge can appear out of nowhere from a brown noser with vaccilating loyalties to his own "group". Perhaps seeking some reward from the top man. So Bush may have heard.

Will Israel attack? Only under huge pressure.

Will the USA attack? Probably will have to.

Bush the cowboy may finally decide that if he doesn't take care of business the possible next Clinton administration will refuse to take action and our world will actually go poof!

Like when the former Clinton admin. failed to take essential steps to prevent the dollar being disconnected from the purchase of oil and going into Iraq became unavoidable.

Poor execution of the war does not change the inevitable do or die situation Bush faced then and will again with Iran.

Sadly, there are moments when I feel I know more about Iran than our three letter acronyms who should be experts but who constantly fall for Iranian disinformation.

Our biggest failing is our inability to effectively conduct counter-intelligence and psyops.

We seem to accept with open arms the infiltrators the Mullahs send us. Frustrating, watching this repeat itself again and again.

Like Akbar Ganji, Amir Abbas Fakhravar and a string of others.

I now know more about them than our government appears to.

I have not copied your other copied recipients out of politeness since you can share this with them.

I cut off contacting the Homeland Security section of State DOJ in my State when I saw they did not understand counter-intelligence and were not really equipped to action intel provided to them.

As you said, I say it as I see it and have no personal fears of the acronyms nor an axe to grind. They do their best but too often rely on enemy Mullah shills like Trita Parsi and even self-declared Mullah supporters like Houshang Amir Ahmadi of Rutgers and that kind of person as it is the easiest channel to produce reports, slanted as they end up being in line with the Mullah talking points.

They do not have in depth reference about Iran and the revolution to establish a measure by which to assess truth and fiction.

Like the State Homeland people that brought an Iranian to meet me who was seven years old when the Khomeini revolution happened, had worked for them for two years and then added insult to injury by interrogating/confronting me on points about Iran of which he was totally ignorant!

Similar to a lance-corporal questioning a 4-star General's global military strategy for the whole armed forces - about which the corporal knows nothing.

No, my ego was not bruised. The senselessness of it in front of his supervisor he was trying to impress showed me how flawed their mind sets were and how they had to rely on novices, who happened to speak Farsi.

Discouraging when we are dealing with ruthless Islamists and risk being destroyed yet field beginners.

Back on subject, an excuse to attack can be triggered, new intel can appear (and there is enough to produce - even of the Iraq type if need be) - and Bush has nothing to lose.

Much will depend on how the voting preliminaries go and what those tea leaves will produce. If the Repubs look like losing anyway, Bush will attack.

Israel is not the fulcrum for the decision.

If the tea leaves show a probable Repub win in the offing, Bush will feel let off the hook as he can half way count on the next Pubs to attack Iran if need be.

Below is some relevant general commentary.

P.S. Thanks for your laudatory comments about my site/writing. Stay in touch.



COMMENTARY

The latest in the US Persian media, much of which apparently receives funding/pay off from Iran’s Mullahs is that British Intelligence intercepts of Iranian military communications, showed they were complaining as to why the nuclear weapon programs had been stopped.

Rock and a hard place similar to Iraq.

Here we have to distinguish between the paramilitary IRGC (Revolutionary Guards) and the formal armed forces, which are currently a second class military below the IRGC and the Basiji internal suppression forces.The official/regular armed forces have been steadily DISARMED as Ahmadi-Nejad does not trust them.

The regular military would also receive disinformation so that they would pass this on.

IRGC commanders, included purposefully in the strategy would confirm this to any questions - to continue the charade.

AND to continue the pretence for the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). as Iran must certainly know Western intel would be listening to their communications as Standard Operational Procedure (SOP).

Remember the Islamic Republic intel agencies are receiving immediate intel from both Russia and China about Western anti-Iran activity. Specially Russia which monitors Western communications as SOP.

Incidently the new Commander of the Basiji (internal suppression) has been put in charge of the IRGC as well as his own group of mostly mercenaries - in a reverse of the former chain of command.

As a side-bar, the former commander of the IRGC, Zolghadr, who was posted to the Ministry of Interior by the Supreme Ruler Khamenei himself, has quit. Ostensibly to do research! The standard excuse for several recent high level resignations.

Considerable in-fighting and power struggles are bubbling up.

Meanwhile, the apparent correct origin of the intel that triggered the NIE analysis is a “defector” - former Islamic deputy minister of war who disappeared to the West in Turkey some months ago and with whom the US intel has reportedly NEVER talked!

If I were doing counter-intel and psyops for Iran and had apparently lost this high asset to the West, (still not clear if he is not a plant, or made vulnerable by having a former wife and children still inside Iran) I would identify who his senior military contacts/colleagues are or were and pass disinformation to them to pass onto him if and when they were clandestinely contacted by him and thus to his new “masters”.

Counter-Intel 101. If the Mullahs did not think of it, the Russians would have instructed them correctly (from their point of view).

Thus again, Islamic Iran’s tactics (as above), falling on fallow ground of anti-Bush elements in the US intel community has allowed them to stupefy, sabotage and disarm our efforts in the world community.

A give-away - on one US based Persian TV commentary (very pro-Dems and certainly on the Mullah payroll) was that Bush had to flip-flop and admit Iran was not working on making weapons and therefore should negotiate with Iran and not attack the Islamic Republic - which ANYWAY - in a matter of a few years - WOULD BECOME AN IMPOSSIBILITY!!!

How come? Unless in a few years an array of nuclear weapons (which are NOT being made, right?) would create a stand-off position for the Mullahs!!!

Or is it also the belief that by then jihadist Islam would have taken over to an extent it could influence the USA and perhaps a Democrat President and Congress would be an ally to ensure this happened - even through Dhimmi ignorance rather than intent.

As some others have been saying, our enemy within, the Dems and our CYA (cover your ass) intel community (for the most part, not all of them, as we still have really good people but who find themselves emasculated by the anti-Bush ones) are the more immediate and present danger than the Islamic Republic’s nukes.

Ostrich heads in the sand mentality being promoted, otherwise called Dhimmi, which means a non-Moslem who promotes and protects Islam and justifies all Islamic action, generally through ignorance, specially as Dhimmis are not allowed to read the Koran.

Since it may take the Mullahs some more time (quite short) to create enough new fissionable material with 3,000+ centrifuges to revitalize the fading nuke material they got from the Ukraine etc., and with North Korea’s help built into six to 12 VIABLE nuclear nose cones on mid-range Shahab missiles, they could well claim they are not making NEW weapons.

The way NIE and the "drive-by media" have been presenting the situation to deny our fears, we will wake up (hopefully still alive) to a nuclear event or events (probably in Israel but possibly in Washington D.C., more likely in New York and perhaps in the port of Los Angeles.

Or at the very least in another effort to do an underground test to claim membership in the world’s nuclear family. Along the lines of the indeterminate nuke test by North Korea, where doubts exist as to whether it was nuclear or lots of conventional explosives.

Also, just as Saddam Hussein, under pressure for his WMD efforts, outsourced them to Libya and sent 30,000 Iraqi and Syrian physicists, scientists and workers there to continue the projects - away from scrutiny focused inside Iraq - now Iran has outsourced to Syria *and North Korea).

There, ample experienced scientists of WMD technology are available and as such, apart from uranium enrichement for the revitalization of old nukes continuing, Iran can pretend to have stopped efforts for creating nukes inside Iran.

But NOT so inside Syria where efforts continue with Mullah funding. Including simple acquisition of fissionable material the Israelis destroyed before it could be shipped to Iran.

Note: if you have Farsi speaking friends, the English article on Slavery & Rape in Islam posted on http://www.antimullah.com a few days ago will go up in the Home Page in Farsi by the end of today (Sunday). Please let them know. An eye-opener.

Link to the English article will be included in case you missed this very informative presentation.

FOLLOW UP EMAIL RECEIVED:

He answered!

Alan Peters is one of the Top individual analysts regarding Iran.

Unlike the clowns and Shills we listen to like Iran controlled plants like Chalabi, and “Academics” who come to their conclusions reading the newspapers and talking to their Imam (and other Iranian intelligence assets) at the Mosque, Alan has actually worked and LIVED in Iran.

Few People understand the scene as well as he does.

The closest was an Iranian woman I represented who was the highest civil Administrator in the history of Iran, but again, she was appointed by the Shah and had left Iran for over 25 years before I got to know her.

Anyway, Alan has a lot to say, he gently chides me subtly for not telling him who I am.

His web site is:

http://www.antimullah.com/

It is one of the best ways to keep up with what is going on in Iran.

So Alan will know who asked him q’s:

To Contact me:

Robert A. Montserrat
2501 Oak Lawn Ave. Suite 350
Dallas, Texas 75219
214.969.6931

Enjoy all!

RAM