World Crisis Watch Update

Crisis Watch N°43 1 March 2007

Six actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in February 2007.

In Uganda, peace talks were on the verge of collapse as the ceasefire between the government and LRA rebels expired and both sides threatened to resume violence if attacked. The security situation also worsened in Somalia as clashes between Islamist fighters and Transitional Federal Government/Ethiopian forces intensified.

Thailand saw a new wave of violence with a string of over 70 attacks hitting the 4 southern provinces and causing significant damage to economic infrastructure. And in Timor-Leste, violence surged with increased targeting of, and resentment towards, international peacekeepers.

The situation also deteriorated in Pakistan and Yemen.

Two situations showed improvement in February.

6-Party talks in Beijing produced a breakthrough in negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program with Pyongyang agreeing to shut its Yongbyon nuclear reactor within 60 days. In Burundi, the release of three rebel FNL leaders satisfied a final FNL condition to allow the peace process to move forward.

For March 2007, CrisisWatch identifies Nigeria and Timor-Leste as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.

FEBRUARY 2007 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations:

Pakistan, Somalia, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, Yemen Improved Situations Burundi, North Korea

Unchanged Situations

Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Corsica (France), Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan), Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Níger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Tonga, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

MARCH 2007 WATCHLIST
Conflict Resolution Opportunity - None